Ocean Transparency: Australia's Strategic Pivot from Submarines to Drone Swarms

[Sparty]

Recent developments in autonomous underwater technology have made the case for a strategic defense pivot even more compelling. Anduril Industries' unveiling of the first Ghost Shark extra-large autonomous undersea vehicle in Australia marks a significant milestone in this direction. The 140 million Australian dollar project, running ahead of schedule and budget, demonstrates the viability of advanced autonomous underwater systems.
As detection technologies rapidly advance, the world's oceans are becoming increasingly transparent to modern sensing systems. This fundamental shift challenges traditional assumptions about submarine warfare and presents Australia with a critical strategic choice: continue with the AUKUS submarine program or pivot to a more distributed defense strategy using underwater drones.
The Ghost Shark program offers a glimpse of this potential future. These modular submarines, capable of operating at depths around 19,685 feet and maintaining underwater presence for 10 days, combine stealth with long-range autonomous capabilities for intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance, and strike missions. As Rear Admiral Peter Quinn noted, "Due to their range, stealth and persistence, Ghost Shark will be able to operate throughout the Indo-Pacific."
The technological race between submarine stealth and detection capabilities appears to be tilting decisively toward detection. This asymmetry stems from basic principles: while submarines must maintain continuous stealth to be effective, detection systems need only succeed briefly to compromise a submarine's mission. Modern detection methods combine satellite technology, quantum sensors, artificial intelligence, and vast networks of underwater monitoring systems. These technologies work in parallel, creating multiple layers of surveillance that are becoming increasingly difficult to evade.
The economic and industrial benefits of a drone-based strategy are already evident in the Ghost Shark program. The project involves 10 Australian companies partnering with Anduril and 42 others in the supply chain, creating a robust domestic industrial base. As Shane Arnott, Senior Vice President Engineering at Anduril Industries, explains, "We have assembled a unique high-powered engineering team of 121 people from the best-of-Australia, across tech, resources and defense."
This approach could be scaled up significantly. A comprehensive "porcupine" strategy employing approximately 2,300 advanced underwater drones would create diverse employment opportunities across both urban and regional Australia. Cities would see growth in high-tech jobs related to software development, artificial intelligence, and research. Regional areas would benefit from manufacturing, maintenance operations, and mineral processing facilities.

Australia possesses nearly all the critical minerals required for building a 21st-century electron economy.

Redirecting AUKUS funds to a large-scale drone program could catalyze development across multiple strategic industries.

The domestic critical minerals sector would benefit from increased demand for materials essential to drone manufacturing and renewable energy systems.

The IT sector would grow to support the artificial intelligence, cybersecurity, and communications systems required for drone operations.

The Australian government's 7.2 billion Australian dollar investment in subsea warfare capabilities and autonomous maritime vehicles indicates a recognition of this potential. The Ghost Shark program's success in developing indigenous capabilities suggests that a larger-scale drone program could similarly benefit Australian industry while creating export opportunities.
Perhaps most significantly, the drone program could accelerate Australia's transition to clean energy. The development of advanced battery technologies for the drones would have immediate applications in renewable energy storage. The need for efficient, sustainable power sources for drone charging stations would drive innovation in renewable energy technologies. Australia could emerge as a leader in battery manufacturing, complementing its position in battery mineral production.

This strategic pivot would also send a powerful diplomatic message. A defensive "porcupine" strategy based on drones, rather than long-range submarines, could reduce regional tensions and foster a more cooperative security environment in the Indo-Pacific.

Being a good neighbor might prove to be Australia's most effective long-term security strategy.

The vision is compelling: Australia could develop a more effective defense system while simultaneously positioning itself as a leader in the technologies that will define the coming decades. The Ghost Shark program demonstrates that Australian industry can deliver sophisticated autonomous systems efficiently and effectively. The choice between submarines and drones may ultimately determine whether Australia simply purchases its security or builds it - along with a more prosperous and sustainable future.