Lower EV demand + or - for Permanent magnet demand ?

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I asked Gemini AI after reading Investornews' article "Jack Lifton Debunks Market Myth: Lower EV Demand Doesn’t Correlate with Permanent Magnet Demand" @

Gemini Does Lower EV Demand equate to Permanent Magnet Demand

Gemini's Answer: No, lower EV demand does not necessarily equate to lower permanent magnet demand.
Here's why:

Hybrids still use permanent magnets: Even if pure electric vehicle (EV) sales dip, hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) are still expected to be popular. HEVs also rely on permanent magnet motors for their electric drive systems https://www.idtechex.com/en/research...al-costs/28314.

Other applications: Permanent magnets are used in various industries beyond electric vehicles, including wind turbines, hard drives, and medical devices. A slowdown in EVs might affect demand somewhat, but not entirely.

So, while lower EV sales could impact permanent magnet demand, it's not a one-to-one correlation. The overall demand for permanent magnets likely depends on the combined health of these various sectors.

[Sparty]

https://www.idtechex.com/en/research...-2022-2032/842

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https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/as...utlook2024.pdf Page 90

"With ongoing policy support, improving economics, and an expanding number of models available, global EV sales (excluding two-/threewheelers) are set to grow strongly, more than tripling by 2030 in the STEPS and APS to almost 45 million and 50 million vehicles, respectively, and increasing more than fivefold to 70 million in the NZE Scenario. This is primarily driven by the sales of electric cars, where a global sales share of 18% in 2023 increases to 45% in the STEPS and almost 50% in the APS by 2030, while reaching twothirds of all sales in the NZE Scenario. This rapid sales growth continues to accelerate to 2050 with sales growing more than fivefold in the STEPS and over sevenfold in the APS. Sales grow almost eightfold in the NZE Scenario by 2050 reaching 110 million vehicles.

Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS)
It is designed to provide a sense of the prevailing direction of energy system progression, based on a detailed review of the current policy landscape. It provides a more granular, sector-by-sector evaluation of the policies that have been put in place to reach stated goals and other energy-related objectives, taking account not only of existing policies and measures but also those that are under development. The STEPS provides a more conservative benchmark for the future than the Announced Pledges Scenario (APS)

The Announced Pledges Scenario (APS)
Introduced in 2021, illustrates the extent to which announced ambitions and targets can deliver the emissions reductions needed to achieve net zero emissions by 2050.