Biofuels causing Phosphate Peak?

[Sparty]

I came across this interesting article... Having long been sceptical of biofuels derived from broadacre crops I thought that others interested in alternative energy might find it of interest also....

Peak Phosphorus: the sequel to Peak Oil [Download PDF]

by Professor Stuart White1 and Dana Cordell1,2

1 Director, Institute for Sustainable Futures, University of Technology, Sydney (UTS) Australia.
2 PhD Scholar, Institute for Sustainable Futures, University of Technology, Sydney (UTS) Australia and Department of Water and Environmental Studies, Linköping University (LiU) Sweden.


1. Introduction

All modern agricultural systems are dependent on continual inputs of phosphate fertilizers derived from phosphate rock. Yet this is relying on a finite resource and current reserves could be depleted this century. More concerning is that before that point is reached, we will see a global peak in phosphate rock reserves, estimated to occur in the next 30 years.

As highlighted by Hubbert first in 1949 (Hubbert, 1949), production of oil resources will eventually reach a maximum rate or ‘peak’ based on the finite nature of non-renewable resources, after which production will decline. Hubbert and later others contest that the important period is not when 100% of the resource is depleted, but rather when it reaches a production maximum, which occurs when 50% of the resource is still in the ground. After this point, production decreases, placing upward pressure on prices and increasing international tensions (Campbell, 1997). While the exact timing may be disputed, it is clear that already the quality of remaining phosphate rock reserves is decreasing and cheap fertilizers will be a thing of the past. Like oil in the 1970’s, phosphate rock is experiencing it’s first significant price shock – a 700% increase from US$50/tonne to US$350/tonne in just 14 months (Lewis, 2008).

Yet there are no alternatives to phosphate rock currently on the market that could replace it at any significant scale. While various small-scale trials are being undertaken, commercialization and implementation on a global scale could take decades to develop.

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[Sparty]

Looks like there are some sharply moving underlying factors driving this one...




Please have a look at www.australian-phosphate.com to get an understanding of why Phosphate may be the next big thing.

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