Sparty
10-19-2009, 03:01 PM
I've just been going through the different deposits and compositions.
GGG
4,570,000 T of REEs
Mkt Cap $89m
LYC
1,183,000 T of REEs (Mar 2008)
$643m
ARU
840,000 T REES (Nov 2008)
$250m
NAV
72,000 t REEs (Jan 2009)
$45m
So purely in terms of REEs and leaving out the uranium, gold, tantalum and whatever else I get the following:
One million dollars buys this many tons of REEs
GGG 51348
ARU 3360
LYC 1839
NAV 1600
In essence LYC, ARU and probably NAV have pretty similar distributions of heavy and light REEs.
The giant China Baiyonebu field (slightly smaller than GGG's) is said to be richest in light REEs. But I haven't seen a breakdown of their deposits.
Navigator is interesting in that they have a lot more to do re drilling and could have a fair bit more up their sleeve. They have recently increased their grades. A recent report suggests that NAV are at present only being valued on their gold resource that is around 1m ozs.
The ratios of heavy to light REEs for GGG is unknown to me, but the credits from the NaF are impressive as are the uraniums... but ARU and NAV also have the latter.
I will make up a table of what has been published including prices of the different REO's, the size of the JORC deposits etc. But I think it will be beyond my skills set to go much further with the credits for the other substances. For instance is 12% phosphate worth much if it needs wet benefication in a dry region?
And how much does it cost China to produce its REO as they are by and large a by product of iron mining etc.
There is most definitely a "REE war" going on (http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&rlz=1B3GGGL_enAU294AU294&ei=QnbcSt-gEo6QkQWzlKzEDg&sa=X&oi=spell&resnum=0&ct=result&cd=1&ved=0CAoQBSgA&q=rare+earths+china+monopoly&spell=1) and yet look at what has happened to the share prices.... there is a contradiction taking place.
But this is why I am so interested. I think that our (index huggers) brokers haven't got there yet and that is why we have a chance to make a good profit.... but specialty metals are also a good place to lose money... witness WVL.
Finally I think that there is some recent "social" movement towards allowing the GGG project to move forwards... but time will tell. I bet China is in there agitating for it to be stopped... but that is a highly personal observation. But look at how cheap their REEs are for me that makes it a worthwhile bet.
GGG
4,570,000 T of REEs
Mkt Cap $89m
LYC
1,183,000 T of REEs (Mar 2008)
$643m
ARU
840,000 T REES (Nov 2008)
$250m
NAV
72,000 t REEs (Jan 2009)
$45m
So purely in terms of REEs and leaving out the uranium, gold, tantalum and whatever else I get the following:
One million dollars buys this many tons of REEs
GGG 51348
ARU 3360
LYC 1839
NAV 1600
In essence LYC, ARU and probably NAV have pretty similar distributions of heavy and light REEs.
The giant China Baiyonebu field (slightly smaller than GGG's) is said to be richest in light REEs. But I haven't seen a breakdown of their deposits.
Navigator is interesting in that they have a lot more to do re drilling and could have a fair bit more up their sleeve. They have recently increased their grades. A recent report suggests that NAV are at present only being valued on their gold resource that is around 1m ozs.
The ratios of heavy to light REEs for GGG is unknown to me, but the credits from the NaF are impressive as are the uraniums... but ARU and NAV also have the latter.
I will make up a table of what has been published including prices of the different REO's, the size of the JORC deposits etc. But I think it will be beyond my skills set to go much further with the credits for the other substances. For instance is 12% phosphate worth much if it needs wet benefication in a dry region?
And how much does it cost China to produce its REO as they are by and large a by product of iron mining etc.
There is most definitely a "REE war" going on (http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&rlz=1B3GGGL_enAU294AU294&ei=QnbcSt-gEo6QkQWzlKzEDg&sa=X&oi=spell&resnum=0&ct=result&cd=1&ved=0CAoQBSgA&q=rare+earths+china+monopoly&spell=1) and yet look at what has happened to the share prices.... there is a contradiction taking place.
But this is why I am so interested. I think that our (index huggers) brokers haven't got there yet and that is why we have a chance to make a good profit.... but specialty metals are also a good place to lose money... witness WVL.
Finally I think that there is some recent "social" movement towards allowing the GGG project to move forwards... but time will tell. I bet China is in there agitating for it to be stopped... but that is a highly personal observation. But look at how cheap their REEs are for me that makes it a worthwhile bet.